At the time of writing the latest Bitcoin block is at height 839,523, just 477 blocks from the next halving of Bitcoin’s block reward. In theory this should be in 79 ½ hours’ time; around 01:59 on 20th April 2024 (UTC), but this is based on 10 minutes for each block. As discussed in my post Bitcoin Block Time Consistency, at that time the average (mean) block time from the genesis block was 9 minutes and 47 seconds which would result in the halving event occurring sooner.
The last difficulty adjustment was made at block 838,656 (21:17:33 10th April 2024) and the next won’t occur until block 840,672 which will be after the halving.
Since the last difficulty adjustment, the average block time has been 586 seconds, or 9 minutes and 46 seconds. Based on this trajectory the halving event should occur in 6,678 seconds earlier than the aforementioned time on 20th April 2024, approximately 12:08:47 on 20th April 2024.
Extending the block time analysis back until the beginning of the year, the block time has been surprisingly consistent, with an average of 586 seconds; the same as since the last difficulty adjustment.
So how does this compare to Satoshi’s intent? With a 10-minute block time, and the genesis block being timed at 06:15:05 on 3rd January 2009, the current halving would not be expected until 02:15:05 on 23rd December 2024. The Bitcoin blockchain is therefore approximately 247 ½ days ahead of the designed schedule.
